Terrorism and the death penalty

One perspective on yesterday's metro bombings you're unlikely to hear outside of Russia concerns the death penalty. Back in 1996 Russia joined the Council of Europe which required, among other things, that they put a moratorium on capital punishment. The Russian constitutional court backed the ban in 2009.

But at the time of last year's Nevsky Express bombing you started to hear commentators calling for a repeal of the moratorium as a deterrent to terrorism. I'm skeptical of that argument, but it's now gaining attention in the upper house of parliament again.

One member: "if such terrible crimes take place, we should propose the society a new variant of criminal punishment, so that people involved in a terrorist attack know what to expect." Article here.

Moscow metro bombings

You've undoubtedly heard the news, especially if you live in a CNN-24/7 country, that two central Moscow subway stations were hit by female suicide bombers.

I don't have much to add at this point, an Izvestia article adds some detail which the NYTimes homepage lacks, namely that the bombers are thought to have connections to the North Caucasus, the explosives were the equivalent of 4 and 2 kg of TNT, that they were made of RDX (also known as T4) and may have had foriegn parts like bolts added. Izvestia article in Russian here.

It would not be surprising to see political effects down the road as well - time will tell.

Russia v. Sweden in music videos

A Swedish friend recommended the following clip to me, a recent Swedish entry in the Eurovision competition. Apparently it cause a minor diplomatic spat when the Russian ambassador lodged a formal complaint about the depiction of his homeland. Skip straight to the music section if you want, for a rousing chorus of "Tingeling Tingeling - da svidanye Putin!" 

Stalin Posters UPDATE

Remember how Moscow Mayor Yury Luzhkov wanted to plaster the city with posters of Stalin to celebrate the 65th anniversary of Victory Day? It's off.

Medvedev put the kibosh on the plan. A source inside the Kremlin committee said "Such things weren't even made in Soviet times."

This is not the first time Medvedev has taken Stalin defenders to task.

10 Years!

10 years ago today, the big man was elected President!

To celebrate, enjoy this video of Vladimir Vladimirovich wearing a sheepskin coat while riding horseback in Siberia:

What Russia watchers get wrong

[Article] "Obama is making Bush's big mistake on Russia" Foreign Policy, 22 Mar 2010. Here.

Though it raises some important issues, I think this is basically a superficial analysis which any Russia hand or Kremlin watcher would greet with a great deal of skepticism. The major claim seems to be that by relying on a personally amicable relationship with President Medvedev, Obama is falling into a game of deception as readily as Bush did.

We already know that Obama and Medvedev speak on the phone at least once a week, sometimes more (as in the heat of the START negotiations). But the authors don't answer an obvious question: what is there to do in international diplomacy OTHER than foster relationships with partners and allies?

I think the whole underlying claim of the article is that Obama is naive and will fall for any promises on democratization or human rights that Medvedev throws his way, a claim which is useless insofar as it can't (yet) be proved or disproved. There are some other problematic claims, though:

1) From the Russian view, Putin never got the best of Bush as the authors imply by dredging up the tired "looked into his eyes and saw his soul" quote. Instead, American-Russian relations soured because Bush got the best of Putin - by tromping around Russia's Central Asian backyard while promoting NATO expansion in the west.

2) Personal relationships are important. Strobe Talbott points out in his book Russia Hand that Clinton was able to gauge Yeltsin's opinion and mood by whether he ended their conversations with "Goodbye, friend" or discourteously hung up.

3) From the Russian view the "new security architecture" proposed by Medvedev isn't designed to undermine NATO's role in Europe (as the authors claim), because NATO has no role in Europe. What, any Russian will ask you, is the alliance for if Russia is not a threat? And Medvedev's so-called European Security Plan, if toothless, at least makes an important point: the architecture of security in Europe isn't complete without a delineated role for Russia.

4) "...there has been no noticeable effort to reform the Russian regime at home..." I direct you to the recent news of Interior Ministry reform, here.

Yes, Putin still wields an enormous amount of power both in his role as Prime Minister and behind the scenes. But it's important to keep two things in mind: one, as President, Medvedev has the constitutional authority to dismiss Putin; two, the protesters and "democratic forces" pointed to in the article direct their anger at Putin, not Medvedev. Two reasons (at least) that Obama needs an amicable relationship with Dmitry.

Lenin's Embalmers

NPR's Science Friday interviews playwright Vern Thiessen, out with a new play in New York about two Soviet scientists ordered by Stalin to preserve Lenin's body for eternity.

Interesting tidbit: Lenin had already been dead for 2 weeks before they started work. 87 years later he's still there! (Or at least parts of him).

Why the Mafia persists

In 2000 two researchers asked 230 shopkeepers in Russia whether they had contact with local protection rackets. Over 40% responded "yes". Those who had been contacted were asked to rate the problems of operating a small business on a scale from 1 to 10. Here are the responses:

That is, contact with a local protection racket rates lower as a business problem than taxes or rent.

(Source: Frye & Zhuravskaya, "Rackets, Regulation, and the Rule of Law" 2000)

Georgia's 'War of the Worlds'

If you haven't been following it - and you probably haven't, since you don't live in bizarro-world - one week ago a Georgian television station aired a fictitious news segment claiming that Russians were invading their country. According to EurasiaNet:

"The Imedi program’s host told viewers that Russian tanks were moving toward Tbilisi, that ports and railroad stations had been bombed and that a majority of Georgian soldiers had deserted. Subsequent bulletins reported "unconfirmed" information that President Mikheil Saakashvili had been assassinated."

As you might imagine, this scared and alarmed a fair number of people: phones jammed, crowds rushed to ATMs and there was, unfortunately, "a surge in heart attacks."

Well the story gets more interesting (or more Soviet, depending on your perspective) with new leaks of an alleged phone conversation between two of the station's news producers. They discuss whether to include a disclaimer during the program, eventually deciding against it because "Misha" (President Saakashvili) wanted more "gusto."

The two accused have responded to the accusations and, naturally, (or unnaturally, if you don't live in bizarro-world) accused "Russian security services" of producing and distributing the tape, arguing that such spy teams could also fabricate a "conversation with the Dalai Lama or Rome’s pope."

Russians already view Saakashvili as a clown and Georgia as a circus. Regardless of the authenticity of the tape, this doesn't help that image.

I am rip off

Sergey Lazerev's song "Naydi Menya", though pretty catchy, is heavily inspired by straight up copies the movie I am Legend with Will Smith.

[Articles] Shale gas fracks Gazprom

"An Unconventional Glut," The Economist, 11 Mar 2010. Here.

"A Foot on the Gas," Financial Times, 12 Mar 2010. Here.

Two articles on how fracking and the technology surrounding shale gas / liquified natural gas (LNG) are going to make America self-sufficient and spell doom for Russia's hydrocarbon economy. That is to say: "Gazprom, Russia’s gas giant, is the company most exposed to this threat, because its strategy relies on developing large—and costly—gasfields in inhospitable places." Of course, the success of shale drilling still rests on three unknowns - availability, profitability and environmental impact.

The FT article also engages in some exciting geopolitical speculation:

"The implications are profound. Policymakers have faced a trilemma: how to make energy supplies secure, affordable and clean. Now an abundance of gas appears to provide the answer to all three problems at once. In the words of Tony Hayward, chief executive of BP, it is a "game changer" - certainly for America, and quite possibly for the world."

For the latter, the prospect of increased imports of LNG and the potential for its own unconventional gas production offer reprieve from dependence on Gazprom, the Russian gas export monopoly. A recent report by the Wood Mackenzie consultancy concluded that Russia's share of the European gas market was likely to fall from 29 per cent to 24 per cent this decade

Is the hydrocarbon war over? Or is this giddy speculation?

Gutter ice, again

Cool pic of a worker relaxing while shoveling ice and snow off of St. Isaac's Cathedral, courtesy of the St. Pete Times.

Moscow not so expensive

The Economist Intelligence Unit has put out their annual rankings of the world's most expensive cities according to a survey of living costs. Moscow's place? 45, down from 31. (Paris took number 1, up from number 2.) Chart here.

Meanwhile, according to Forbes' most recent estimate, Moscow has the second highest number of billionaires of any city in the world (New York beats it out 60 to 50, link here).

Vlad about

Last weekend Putingrad rented out a club for an exclusive children-of-billionaires / United Russia party. Beluga caviar was served on discs of frozen Putinka vodka and individual shots were offered with a chaser of serf tears.

Vlad made an appearance. Can you spot him? Hair (dis)courtesy of a Swedish friend.

Stalin news roundup

He's back again, the perennial bad boy, this time because the Moscow city government has decided to plaster the city with Stalin posters for the 65th anniversary V-Day celebrations. Khrushchev look-alike winner Mayor Yury Luzhkov responded to criticism by saying: "I am not an admirer of Stalin - I am an admirer of objective history”... whatever that means.

Meanwhile, the other day marked the 57th anniversary of the dictator's death and crowds - of both protestors and well wishers - flocked to Red Square for the event. As Robert Amsterdam's blog usefully observes:

"It seems to be permanently confusing to outsiders how it is possible that Russians can acknowledge that Stalin was responsible for the extermination of, say, about 27 million citizens, but still can't make up their minds whether this was good or bad. (...) 

Stalin may have been terrible for the people, but he was great for the state, and for some there seems to be no human cost great enough to hinder the pursuit of statehood grandeur."

Finally, Alexander Arkhangelsky argues that the difference between historical memory in Germany and in Russia is that Germans have learned to place their past in "historic quarantine," to museum-ize it.

"What’s to be done with the plaques that adorn the gates of Hitler’s concentration camps: 'Jedem das Seine,' 'Arbeit macht frei?' Why can they, the Germans, keep them, while we, the post-Soviets, can’t? Answer: because the Germans are not restoring the writings on the metro, but keep them at museum complexes instead. Excluded from our immediate surroundings. Enclosed by a symbolic border, placed in historic quarantine. If you really do want to preserve the memory of our tragic past, please be our guest and place the words about Stalin in a museum context."

Uh-oh. Is that a comparison between Nazism and Stalinsim? We all know how dangerous that can be...

[Article] More US - Kyrgyz projects

After haggling over and losing basing rights at the Manas airport then reopening as a "transit center", the US and Kyrgyzstan are in discussions to build a $5.5 million anti-terror training facility.

As the article notes: "The United States has already spent millions of dollars on upgrading and constructing training centers for Kyrgyz security forces."

Including putting the guest house owner we stayed with in Kochkor through a Weapons of Mass Destruction training course:

Corruption = bad roads? UPDATE

The question was posed here - how does corruption lead to bad roads?

An article over at Window on Eurasia provides some background.

First, Russian roads are bad:

• In the EU, "trucks carrying goods average 1000 kilometers a day" - in Russia, about 300.
• "In 1995, the country had 940,000 kilometers of such roads," a figure which has increased only marginally according to government estimates while independent observers think it has actually declined. Chine, by contrast, has 1,900,000 kilometers.
• According to the article, "in Kazakhstan, Uganda, Mauritania, and Lesotho, the quality of roads is higher”
• By WHO calculations, Russia is #2 (after Kazakhstan) in highway deaths.

Second, despite these points, Russian roads are incredibly expensive:

• This years budget slots $9 billion for road construction
• According to the article, one highway-kilometer costs Russians six times more than it does American taxpayers

The article ends with an unsatisfying explanation - “the answer which experts gives unanimously is corruption.” But who is doing the skimming and from where? If Russians are paying $9 billion per year to a highway grid that doesn't grow, it sounds like A LOT of money is being siphoned off. But which ministries? Tax, interior, transportation? More info please.

Gutter ice UPDATE

English Russia has a gallery up showing the kind of damage falling snow and ice can do (especially to cars).

[Article] Europe's last dictator?

"Belarus' Aleksander Lukashenko: European Chessmaster" Real Clear World, 5 March 2010. Here.

The author doesn't use the "D" word, but the "iron fist" formulation is pretty close:

"Having ruled with an iron fist over his country of 10 million since 1994, he is one of the longest-serving presidents in Europe and knows very well how to use internal and external conflicts to maintain his rule. As Lukashenko sees it, Belarusians love and need him as the guarantor of nationhood and stability."

But from what I've heard about Belarus, that's not just how Lukashenko sees the situation - it's how Belarusians see the situation also.

One of my professors is from Belarus and works for a think-tank there on political and economic issues. In a seminar on political economy he surprised the students by saying "Lukashenko isn't a dictator." Somebody asked, "well then what do you call him?" He replied, "I don't know, but not a dictator. If they held elections tomorrow, even if the elections weren't rigged, he would win. People love him. In 20 or 50 years when they write textbooks of Belarusian history he'll be celebrated as the leader who was able to avoid the chaos of Russian transition and the encroachment of the EU."

And Russians also tend to have a fairly decent impression of Lukashenko. He's thought of as maintaining order and discipline, keeping the streets clean literally a figuratively. Check out some pics of public transportation in Minks, the metro and trams - they look more like Japan (or Korea for that matter) than Russia.

As my babushka once told me - "Lukashenko, he's a dictator, but he's doing a good job."

[Holidays] To all the ladies...

Happy International Women's Day! After Maslenitsa (Feb. 8-14 ) and Valentine's Day (Feb 14) it's another good excuse to buy flowers from the babushkas outside the metro and give them to your favorite female.

In a Russian class the other day, one of the students asked the teacher:

Будет парад в понедельник?
    (Will there be a parade on Monday?)

Какой парад?
    (What kind of parade?)

Парад... женщин?
    (A parade... of women?)

Happy holiday!

And while we're at it, actually, I forgot to wish everyone a happy Day of the Defender of the Fatherland (Feb. 23), another federal holiday. It's become sort of an all-purpose men's/father's day, but с праздником nonetheless. (That mean's you, U.)

[Weird Russia] News roundup

• Beer-drinking, smoking chimp sent to rehab in Kazan- "The beer and cigarettes were ruining him. He would pester passers-by for booze." (Thanks, Tom!)

• Self-described "inventor" Viktor Petrik, friend of Putin's United Russia, has invented a filtration system which he claims will turn radioactive waste into drinking water. (Funny, as a St. Petersburg resident Petrik should have realized that radioactive waste already comes out of the tap...)

• U.S. officials returned a Tsarist-era pendant to Moscow which had been stolen by a couple working at the Hermitage museum in St. Pete and later surfaced on an online U.S. auction site.

[Article] The end of Putinism?

"The end seems near for the Putin model," Anders Aslund, Washington Post, 26 Feb 2010. Here.

Good explanation of how Russia's recent hydrocarbon wealth has been at the expense of competitiveness, openness and efficiency. But there's one unexplained non sequitur I'm left puzzling over - this sentence:

"Russia is so corrupt that it has failed to expand its road network since 2000."

I can understand a general argument about how corruption hurts public goods, but why roads specifically?

[Article] Wild packs of Moscow

"Moscow's stray dogs" Financial Times, 16 Jan. 2010. Here.

Fun article on the stray population in Moscow, with a profile of a biologist who has studied their behavior for the last 30 years. He estimates that there are 30-35,000 strays in the city. Last time I was on Red Square one of our (drunken) companions broke into sobs and lamented the fate of Russia's domesticated animals (remember that?). Good times.

Two good quotes:

Neuronov says there are some 500 strays that live in the metro stations, especially during the colder months, but only about 20 have learned how to ride the trains.

And:

Leaving the windows open once the thaw of spring finally took hold, I found myself pulled out of a deep slumber by a cacophony that sounded as if packs of dogs were tearing each other apart in the grounds of our apartment complex. This went on for weeks. I later learned that spring is when many strays mate – “the dog marriage season”, as Russians poetically call it.

My apartment sits across from some sort of medical institute which has a large courtyard out front. Every night an assembly of 15-20 strays congregates there. I like to imagine training them into a disciplined pack, following behind me through the streets of St. Pete, fighting crime and football hooligans.

Gutter ice UPDATE

The 4-degree Celsius heat wave we're currently experiencing has been a tremendous relief from the freezing temperatures last week, but it's also brought a whole new type of treacherousness with it. As the gutters melt, they spill out into the sidewalks creating huge icy/slushy wastelands which make the sidewalks impassable. Small lakes form at the curb and pedestrians usually resort to walking down the street alongside cars.

In addition, snow and ice removal from building tops is still ongoing and some stretches of sidewalk are uneven dunes of ice bricks. According to my land lady, 3 people have been killed already from falling ice. Crazy. And the SP Times is reporting that a local student died on Sunday after slipping off a snow-covered roof.

Meanwhile at the University the defrost has brought a distinct musty smell to the computer lab and the ceiling is currently dripping onto the wall lamp next to me, leaving a moist patch on the faux-parquet floor.

[Other] The Office

I recently rewatched the original BBC series with Ricky Gervais and two things immediately struck me: 1) the David Brent character (Michael Scott in Scranton) is exceedingly unlikeable. Whereas Michael's meanness and ignorance seems to stem from a deep need for friendship, David's ego is just so big that he believes he has friends as an extension of his greatness. 2) It's not that funny. Certainly not in the punch-line a minute sense of the American series. All of the humor is drawn out of awkward situations that could actually reflect reality. But if they happened to you, you wouldn't be laughing. It's really very depressing in some ways.

Also rewatched Extras which, if you haven't seen, I highly recommend. The episode with Sir Ian McKellan is probably one of my favorites of any series.