[Article] Russia and Belarus

"Long Pipelines Make Bad Neighbors" Foreign Affairs 12 Jan 2010. Here.

The existing contract for oil deliveries from Russia to Belarus expired Dec 31, and now everyone's up in a tizzy about renegotiating the terms. A third of Europe's oil comes from Russia, via Belarus, and the EU is worried about the Kremlin turning off the spigots.

Tensions have been mounting for a while:

• Belarus refused to recognize Abkhazia and South Ossetia as independent states
• Russia offered a $2billion loan to Belarus, then didn't deliver the final $500 million
• In response, Moscow banned Belarussian milk products
• Belarus announced an interest in joining the EU's Eastern Partnership

Upshot:

If Moscow were to succeed in completely taking over the Belarusian energy distribution network, it would not only be in a stronger position to influence Minsk's foreign policy, but the move would also improve Moscow's market power, and hence its political leverage, vis-à-vis Europe.