So, who won?

You've seen the news, read the articles. The U.S. and Russia signed a new START treaty, cutting deployed strategic nuclear warheads to 1,550 - a decrease of 30% (depending on how you count). But who benefits from this politically?

Obama, as usual, is getting criticized from both right and left - his new nuclear doctrine doesn't go far enough the NY Times editorial board claims; scaremonger Charles Krauthammer assures us that it is the end of western civilization.

I think when all the dust has cleared it will be seen as a win for Obama - he was able, at the very least, to restore good working relations with Russia and, at best, thereby secure help on Iran and in Afghanistan.

But what about Medvedev? On the one hand, it is seen as his initiative, free of Putin's influence. For the younger generation of lawyers and businessmen who are concerned with modernization - and who know that maintaining a large nuclear arsenal is costly - this will be seen as proof of Medvedev's commitment to reform. For Russian hardliners, the communist party, and for the siloviki who surround Putin, it is already seen as an unnecessary concession to the U.S. which, by the way, is still considering a missile shield next door.

It's hard to see this as an immediate win for Medvedev, despite his utterances to the contrary. But there's an angle which most people are missing in their commentaries - they're failing to consider Medvedev's European Security Plan. Medvedev has been promoting his "14 Points" plan since almost the beginning of his presidency, though the U.S. and NATO states mostly have ignored it. But, as of yesterday, Slovakia has become the second country (after Germany) to back the plan.

If Medvedev can leverage the START treaty into further support for his proposed European security architecture, it will be a definite win.

UPDATE: You can read a copy of Medvedev's European security proposal in English courtesy of the Kremlin's website, here.